Not a lot to say this time other than that there is still a lot of room for movement at the last couple tournaments of the regular season. Only about a point and a half separate the teams in the top five. This is also about the same distance separating #11 from #18. An extra win or two over quality opponents, particularly in elims, could have a big impact for these teams.
- These are not my personal opinions. The algorithm is set and runs autonomously from how I may personally feel about teams. I do not put my finger on the scale.
- The ratings are determined by nothing more than the head to head outcome of debate rounds. No preconceptions about which schools or debaters are good, no weighting for perceived quality of tournaments, no eye test adjustments. If you beat somebody, your rating goes up and theirs goes down. If you beat somebody with a much higher rating, it goes up more. If you beat them in elims, it will go up by more than if you do so in prelims. That's it.
For a sense of what the ratings number actually means:
- A 1 point ratings advantage translates roughly into 5:4 expected odds,
- 2 points is about 3:2
- 3 points is about 2:1
- 4 points is about 3:1
- 5 points is about 4:1
- 8 points is about 9:1